International predictions for 2013


Kia Ora

Yesterday I made my predictions on what would happen around New Zealand in 2013. The categories that the individual predictions fell into are: Politics, Sport, Society and the Economy. In making my predictions I considered the major events of the past 12 months and the probable course that – for example – the Government of Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard will take as it approaches the election later this year. On that note, and without further ado, here are my international predictions for 2013:

Politics
- Discontent with the Australian federal politicians will see a hung Parliament with neither Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard or Leader of the Opposition, Tony Abbott favoured by voters.
- German Chancellor Angela Merkel will be returned to office with a drastically reduced majority that forces her to collaborate with other German political parties in the Bundestag to form a Government.
- The Government of Mario Monti in Italy collapses under the weight of the Eurozone crisis.
- British Prime Minister David Cameron is forced to make concessions to Eurosceptics in his Conservative Party that exacerbate the chill between the Eurozone countries and Britain.
- H.A.M.A.S. or Israel start another conflict and illegal settlement building is accelerated.

Economy
- United States fiscal cliff becomes a significant feature of the U.S. political landscape that refuses to go away until politicians from both sides – realising their re-election chances are in the gun – co-operate in a bi-partisan manner to tackle the problem head on.
- Eurozone Crisis sees Spain nearly default; Greece just managing to avoid a spectacularly bad exit from the Euro.
- Iranian and Syrian tensions cause spikes in the oil prices at one time or another.

Sport
- South Africa become No.1 in both Test and One Day formats of cricket.
- F.I.F.A. world cup qualifying matches spring some big surprises.
- Chelsea play Manchester United in the final of the English Premier League, but Manchester win.
-

Society
- Church of England inability to acknowledge women and their role in the Church, complicated by lack of progress on Lesbian/Gay/Bisexual/Transgender issues brings its establishment into question.
- Anger over treatment of women and their rights worldwide grows, but fails to translate into positive action.
- Corruption in South African police causes more unrest.

Environment
- Republicans attempt to derail further moves by U.S. Government to support renewable energy.
- Australian Government forced to announce measures to protect the Great Barrier Reef, but accused of “too little too late”
- Faced with hard realities of energy demand, some mothballed nuclear power stations are restarted despite lingering post-Fukushima concerns.

There you have it. Those are my predictions for 2013. I have opted not to make any natural hazard predictions other than to say I am guessing a relatively average year with nothing that really stands out.
At the end of this year, I will revisit this article to see how many came true.

Take Care,

Rob

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